While many areas of the economy have contracted, the housing market has stayed remarkably strong. Can the good news last?
COVID-related shutdowns began in March, real estate brokers and clients scrambled to respond to the change. Record-low interest rates led lenders to stop new underwriting, and homeowners debated whether to put their homes on the market. At the end of the year, average home prices were up 13.4% from the previous year, and with 13 fewer days on market .1
Now, as the spring market approaches, you may wonder whether the reliable times can continue. If you are a homeowner, should you take advantage of this opportunity? If you are a buyer, should you jump in and risk paying too much? Below, we answer some of your pressing questions.
Todays market vs. the 2008 meltdown?
Pandemic fears of an economic recession and a subsequent mortgage meltdown were at the forefront of homeowners. For buyers and sellers the two seemed to go hand in hand, as they did in the 2008 economic crisis.
The conditions of 2008 recession differ from the current downturn, with the housing market the source of good news.2 Historical patterns of housing prices remain stable. Homeowners are staying put, and investors are investing money in bricks and mortars to avoid an uncertain the stock market.
Lessons of 2008 show banks better funded, homeowners holding more equity, and economic activity focused on financial factors outside the housing market. As many industries quickly pivoted to work from home, early fears of widespread job-loss foreclosures have failed to occur. The Federal stimulus and the Paycheck Protection Program helped offset some of the worst early effects of the shutdown.
Are we facing a real estate bubble?
A real estate bubble occurs with rapidly rising housing prices and investor spectulation. When the values drop rapidly the real estate bubble pops. This leads to lower equity, or in some cases negative equity conditions.
Low-interest rates and lack of homes are attributed to current rising home prices. The principle of supply and demand works as it should. Experts predict a strong seller’s market for 2021, with increases in new construction.3 Allowing supply to gradually rise to meet demand, slow down rising home values, and offer a gentle correction.
Effects of low interest rates
Freddie Mac states, projected rates to continue at current low levels throughout 2021.4 Contributing to home affordability in markets considered overpriced. These low interest rates should keep the market lively and moving forward for the foreseeable future.
Effects of low inventory
Low inventory with high demand attribute to higher average home prices.5 Home prices will gradually ease, vaccinations rollout, buyer demand drives homeowners with delayed sales, and new home construction increases to meet demand.6
Aren’t some markets and sectors appearing soft?
Stories of young professionals and families fleeing attached dwellings, high-priced urban areas to move to wide-open spaces of suburban and rural markets. Along with reinforced work-from-home policies that became permanent at some of the country’s biggest companies.
The death of the city and the end of the condo market rumors of these two residential sectors were greatly exaggerated.
With vaccine rollouts, renters returned to major urban areas, attracted by the rise in available inventory and discounted rental rates.7 Laser-focused buyers looking for a single-family home now take a second look at condos.8 Nationwide condo prices lag behind those of detached homes. Observed are significant price increases and days fewer days on the market year over year.
The 2020 migration has spread the economic wealth to suburban and rural enclaves that normally don’t benefit from increases in home values or an influx of new investment. As many of these new residents set up housekeeping in their rural retreats, they’ll revitalize the economies of their adopted communities for years to come.
How has COVID affected the “seasonal” real estate market?
The real estate market is a seasonal phenomenon. The widespread shutdown in March 2020, which came at the beginning of the market’s growth cycle in many areas, has led to a protracted, seemingly endless “hot spring market.”
Fannie Mae’s chief economist Douglas Duncan predicts slower growth from 2020 historic numbers, the outlook is positive as we embark on the 2021 spring selling cycle. Duncan expects an additional boost in the second half of 2021, as buyers return to business as usual and expect to put some of their pandemic savings to work for a down payment. We’re looking at a longer than usual, hot real estate market.
How will a Biden administration affect the real estate market?
A projected housing policy promises to boost the real estate market in many cases.10 Real estate investors bemoan proposed changes to 1031 Exchanges, the Biden plan for a $15,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit aims to increase affordability and bring eager new home buyers into the market. Biden’s policy identifies low inventory as the driving factor of unsustainable home values and geared towards affordability through investments in construction and refurbishment.
According to most indicators, the real estate news will be overwhelmingly positive throughout 2021, and possibly beyond. Pent-up demand, consumer-oriented policies, and a sustained low-interest environment and rising inventory, should help homeowners maintain their increased equity without unbalancing the market. The increase of long-term work from home policies promises to boost many markets now and in the years to come.
HAVE QUESTIONS? WE HAVE ANSWERS
Economic indicators and trends are national, real estate is local. We are here to answer your questions and help you understand what is happening in your neighborhood. Reach out to learn how these larger movements affect our local market and the value of your home.
As part of last month’s COVID-19 stimulus package, $25 billion in federal assistance funds are expected to be disbursed to states today, Jan. 26.
There could be a rush for funds with an estimated 14 million Americans are behind on their rent. Further, rental arrears in the country may be near $70 billion, CNBC reports.
To qualify for rental assistance, at least one member of a household must have experienced income loss, significant expenses due to the pandemic, or are eligible for unemployment benefits. They will need to show they are or could be at risk of homelessness. The person’s current income level also can’t be higher than 80% of the area’s median income. Several states are prioritizing applicants who are at 50% or lower on the median income level and who’ve been unemployed for 90 days or more, CNBC reports.
Renters could be eligible for up to a total of 12 months of back rent and utility bills. They may also be eligible to get payments to cover future rental payments. The funds are paid directly to the landlord or utility company.
Landlords may also be able to apply on behalf of their tenants, as long as they get approval from the tenant.
Some states are already offering existing rental assistance programs under monies previously provided through the CARES Act. They may add the new funds to their existing rental assistance programs or start a new program.
“Where or how will apply will vary city by city,” Emily Benfer, a visiting law professor at Wake Forest University, told CNBC. “Renters should contact local housing groups, their representatives, or the local 211/311 lines to identify programs and learn how to apply.”
5 Inspiring Home Design and Remodeling Trends for 2021
We’ve all spent a lot more time at home over the past year. Our homes have become our office, our classroom, our gym—and most importantly, our haven. It’s no surprise to discover that 5 Inspiring Home Design and Remodeling Trends for 2021 revolve around soothing color palettes, cozy character atmosphere, and quiet retreats.
We advise our clients to take modern design preferences, over-personalized or unpopular renovations can lower your property’s value. And selecting out-of-style fixtures and finishes could cause your home to feel dated quickly.
To help inspire your design projects this year, we’ve rounded up five of the hottest trends. Keep in mind, not all of these will work well in every house. If you plan to buy, list, or renovate your property, give us a call. We can help you realize your vision and maximize the impact of your investment.
1. Uplifting Color Design
Colors are gravitating toward warm and happy shades that convey a sense of coziness, comfort, and wellbeing. This year’s palettes draw from earthy hues, warm neutrals, and soothing blues and greens.1
White and gray colors are safe options. However, neutrals are increasing in popularity for walls, cabinets, and furnishings in 2021. For a fresh and sophisticated look, try one of these 2021 paint colors of the year:
Aegean Teal (coastal blue) by Benjamin Moore
Urbane Bronze (brownish-gray) by Sherwin-Williams
Soft Candlelight (muted yellow) by Valspar
On the opposite end of the spectrum, indigo, ruby, sapphire and plum are showing up on everything from fireplace mantels and floating shelves to fabrics and home accessories. These classic, rich hues can help bring warmth, depth, and a touch of luxury to your living space.
To incorporate these colors, designers recommend using the “60-30-10 Rule.” Choose a dominant color to cover 60% of your room. First, walls, rugs, and sofa might be varying shades of beige or gray. Layer a secondary color for 30% of the room. This might include draperies and accent furniture. Third an accent color for 10% of your room, showcased with artwork and accessories.2
After a decade of minimalism, there’s been a shift towards highly-decorative and personalized interiors that incorporate more color, texture, and character. Clearly defined styles of mid-century modern, industrial, and a curated style replace modern farm homes with furniture, fixtures, and accessories that seem to have been collected over time.3
This trend has extended to the kitchen, where atmosphere has become as important as functionality. The ubiquitous all-white kitchen is fading in popularity as homeowners opt for unique touches that help individualize their space. If you’re planning a kitchen remodel, consider mixing in other neutrals—like gray, black, and light wood—for a more custom, pieced-together look. Replace Moroccan square tiles for a modern alternative with old-world flair.4
The pandemic forced many of us to rethink our home design. From multipurpose rooms to converted closets to backyard cottages, we’ve had to find creative ways to manage virtual meetings and school. And designers expect these changes to impact the way we live and work for years to come.
Home builders predict the end of open-concept floor plans as we know them.5 Buyers are looking for separation and privacy. Cue the addition of alcoves, pocket doors, and sliding partitions that enable homeowners to section off rooms as needed.4
The necessity of a home office space is also here to stay. But what if you don’t have a dedicated room? Alternative workspaces have become increasingly popular. In fact, one of the biggest trends on Pinterest this year is the “cloffice”—essentially a spare closet turned home office. Searches for “home library design” and “bookshelf room divider” are on the rise, as well.6
With travel options limited right now, more homeowners are turning their vacation budgets into staycation budgets. Essentially, recreate the resort experience at home—and enjoy it 365 days a year!
Bedrooms should be a soothing sanctuary for rest and relaxation. Minimalist decor and muted colors give way to bolder statement pieces. To create a “boutique hotel” look in your own bedroom, start with a large, upholstered headboard in a rich color or pattern. Layer organic linen bedding, a chunky wool throw, and finish the look with matching wall lights..7
Carry those vacation-vibes into your bathroom with some of the top luxury upgrades for 2021. Curbless showers and freestanding tubs continue to be popular choices that offer a modern and spacious feel, and large-format shower tiles with minimal grout lines make clean up a breeze. Add a floating vanity and aromatherapy shower head for the ultimate spa-like experience.4
Homeowners want to use outdoor their spaces. Backyard swimming pool sales skyrocketed in 2020, with many installers reporting unprecedented demand.8 New pools aren’t the only way homeowners can increase their outdoor areas this year.
The home design website Houzz recently named 2021 “the year of the pergola.” They’re a relatively quick and affordable option to add shade and ambiance to your backyard.4 Decked-out, custom playgrounds for exercising (and occupying) the youngest family members who may be missing out on school and extracurricular activities.9
Don’t limit your budgt to the backyard, landscapers are reporting an increase in front yard enhancements, including porch additions and expanded seating options. Social front yards enable neighbors to stay connected and observe social distance guidelines.10
Learn how upgrades impact a homes value. Buyer preferences vary by neighborhood and price range. We can share our insights and offer tips on how to maximize the return on your investment. And if you’re in the market to sell, we can run a Comparative Market Analysis on your home to find out how it compares to others in the area. Contact us to schedule a free consultation!
Sources 5 Inspiring Home Design and Remodeling Trends for 2021:
In July, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell below 3% for the first time in history.1 And while many Americans have rushed to take advantage of this unprecedented opportunity, others question the hype. Are today’s rates truly a bargain?
While average mortgage rates have drifted between 4% and 5% in recent years, they haven’t always been so low. Freddie Mac began tracking 30-year mortgage rates in 1971. At that time, the national average was 7.31%.2 As the rate of inflation started to rise in the mid-1970s, mortgage rates surged. It’s hard to imagine now, but the average U.S. mortgage rate reached a high of 18.63% in 1981.3
Fortunately for home buyers, inflation normalized by October 1982, which sent mortgage rates on a downward trajectory that would bring them as low as 3.31% in 2012.3 Since 2012, 30-year fixed rates have risen modestly, with the daily average climbing as high as 4.94% in 2018.4
So what’s causing today’s rates to sink to unprecedented lows? Economic uncertainty.
Mortgage rates generally follow bond yields, because the majority of U.S. mortgages are packaged together and sold as bonds. As the coronavirus pandemic continues to dampen the economy and inject volatility into the stock market, a growing number of investors are shifting their money into low-risk bonds. Increased demand has driven bond yields—and mortgage rates—down.5
However, according to National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “the number one driver of low mortgage rates is the accommodating Federal Reserve stance to keep interest rates low and to buy up mortgage-backed securities.” According to Yun, “we will see mortgage rates stay near this level for the next 18 months because of the significance of the Fed’s stance.”6
HOW DO LOW MORTGAGE RATES BENEFIT CURRENT HOMEOWNERS?
Low mortgage rates increase buyer demand, which is good news for sellers. But what if you don’t have any plans to sell your home? Can current homeowners benefit from falling mortgage rates? Yes, they can!
A growing number of homeowners are capitalizing on today’s rock-bottom rates by refinancing their existing mortgages. In fact, refinance applications have surged over the past few months—and for a good reason.7 Reduced interest rates can save homeowners a bundle on both monthly payments and total payments over the lifetime of a mortgage.
The chart below illustrates the potential savings when you decrease your mortgage rate by just one percentage point. When it comes to refinancing, the bigger the spread, the greater the savings.
Estimated Monthly Payment On a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Loan Amount
4.0%
3.0%
Monthly Savings
Savings Over 30 Years
$100,000
$477
$422
$55
$20,093
$200,000
$955
$843
$112
$40,184
$300,000
$1,432
$1,265
$167
$60,277
$400,000
$1,910
$1,686
$224
$80,368
$500,000
$2,387
$2,108
$279
$100,461
Be sure to factor in any prepayment penalties on your current mortgage and closing costs for your new mortgage. For a refinance, expect to pay between 2% to 5% of your loan amount.8 You can divide your closing costs by your monthly savings to find out how long it will take to recoup your investment, or use an online refinance calculator. For a more precise calculation of your potential savings, we’d be happy to connect you with a mortgage professional in our network who can help you decide if refinancing is a good option for you.
HOW DO LOW MORTGAGE RATES BENEFIT HOME BUYERS?
We’ve already shown how low rates can save you money on your mortgage payments. But they can also give a boost to your budget by increasing your purchasing power. For example, imagine you have a budget of $1,500 to put toward your monthly mortgage payment. If you take out a 30-year mortgage at 5.0%, you can afford a loan of $279,000.
Now let’s assume the mortgage rate falls to 4.0%. At that rate, you can afford to borrow $314,000 while still keeping the same $1,500 monthly payment. That’s a budget increase of $35,000!
If the rate falls even further to 3.0%, you can afford to borrow $355,000 and still pay the same $1,500 each month. That’s $76,000 over your original budget! All because the interest rate fell by two percentage points.If you’ve been priced out of the market before, today’s low rates may put you in a better position to afford your dream home.
On the other hand, rising mortgages rates will erode your purchasing power. Wait to buy, and you may have to settle for a smaller home in a less-desirable neighborhood. So if you’re planning to move, don’t miss out on the phenomenal discount you can get with today’s historically-low rates.
HOW LOW COULD MORTGAGE RATES GO?
No one can say with certainty how low mortgage rates will fall or when they will rise again. A lot will depend on the trajectory of the pandemic and subsequent economic impact.
Forecasters at Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association predict 30-year mortgage rates will average 3.2% and 3.5% respectively in 2021.9,10 However, economists at Fannie Mae expect them to dip even lower to an average of 2.8% next year.11
Still, many experts agree that those who wait to take advantage of these unprecedented rates could miss out on the deal of a lifetime. “With rates now at all-time historic lows, it’s hard to imagine that people may be holding out for something even better,” warns Paul Buege, president and COO of Inlanta Mortgage.12 Positive news about a vaccine or a faster-than-expected economic recovery could send rates back up to pre-pandemic levels.
HOW CAN I SECURE THE BEST AVAILABLE MORTGAGE RATE?
While the average 30-year mortgage rate is hovering around 3%, you can do a quick search online and find advertised rates that are even lower. But these ultra-low mortgages are typically reserved for only prime borrowers. So what steps can you take to secure the lowest possible rate?
Consider a 15-Year Mortgage Term
Lock in an even lower rate by opting for a 15-year mortgage.If you can afford the higher monthly payment, a shorter mortgage term can save you a bundle in interest, and you’ll pay off your home in half the time.13
Give Your Credit Score a Boost
The economic downturn has made lenders more cautious. These days, you’ll probably need a credit score of at least 740 to secure their lowest rates.14 While there’s no fast fix for bad credit, you can take steps to help your score before you apply for a loan:15
Dispute inaccuracies on your credit report.
Pay your bills on time, and catch up on any missed payments.
Hold off on applying for new credit.
Pay off debt, and keep balances low on your credit cards.
Don’t close unused credit cards (unless they’re charging you an annual fee).
Make a Large Down Payment
The more equity you have in a home, the less likely you are to default on your mortgage. That’s why lenders offer better rates to borrowers who make a sizable down payment. Plus, if you put down at least 20%, you can avoid paying for private mortgage insurance.
Pay for Points
Discount points are fees paid to the mortgage company in exchange for a lower interest rate. At a cost of 1% of the loan amount, they aren’t cheap. But the investment can pay off over the long-term in interest savings.
Shop Around
Rates, terms, and fees can vary widely amongst mortgage providers, so do your homework. Contact several lenders to find out which one is willing to offer you the best overall deal. But be sure to complete the process within 45 days—or else the credit inquiries by multiple mortgage companies could have a negative impact on your credit score.16
READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES IN HISTORY? Mortgage rates have never been this low. Don’t miss out on your chance to lock in a great rate on a new home or refinance your existing mortgage. Either way, we can help. We’d be happy to connect you with the most trusted mortgage professionals in our network. And if you’re ready to start shopping for a new home, we’d love to assist you with your search—all at no cost to you! Contact us today to schedule a free consultation.
The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial advice. Consult a financial professional for advice regarding your individual needs.
